Although Kogan showed another outstanding result this year, growing revenue 40% and EBITDA 90%, the market does not support the current valuation and has punished the share price soundly. The day the results were announced, I sold my entire holding for a 230% gain on my average buy. A great result, but it’s hard to escape the fact that I could have sold at closer to 400% returns. The reason I’m taking a break is that things like this get way too far inside your head, which stops you from making rational decisions.
Knowing when to sell is hard, so for the time being I’ve decided to take all my cash off the table and get my mindset back in order. I am also in the process of selling down ST1, as I believe we are around fair value and the company isn’t growing as rapidly as I would have expected.
This means I will be down to 4 stocks and holding 50% cash, primed for future opportunities. I look forward to giving my brain a break so I can make better decisions when I emerge from the self-imposed blackout period.
I’ll be back in September with a better mindset, and hopefully, wiser.